The Long ViewNo. 13
The yield curve's track record, in one chart
Inversions have preceded every recession in the data — but the timing has varied widely.
This archive edition was compiled from official historical data on September 23, 2026, when Diurna began publishing.
The yield curve — the line connecting interest rates across maturities — usually slopes upward, because investors typically demand more compensation to lock up money for longer. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields is the most common shorthand for its slope.
When the spread turns negative, the curve is said to be inverted: investors accept lower yields for longer maturities, often because they expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in the future. That expectation frequently reflects worries about growth.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions as dated by the NBER.
Where it stands
As of September 18, 2026, the 10-year/2-year spread stood at 0.25 percentage points. Since June 1976, it has averaged 0.84 percentage points, with a median of 0.77 percentage points. Today's reading is higher than 28% of all observations in that span. The high point was 2.91 percentage points in February 2011; the low was minus 2.41 percentage points in March 1980.
For comparison, it was 1.14 percentage points five years ago, 0.93 percentage points ten years ago, and minus 0.07 percentage points twenty years ago.
Average by decade
| 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.30 percentage points | 0.47 percentage points | 0.87 percentage points | 1.18 percentage points | 1.44 percentage points | 0.25 percentage points |
The history
The shaded bars mark U.S. recessions as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Since this series begins in 1976, every recession has been preceded by an inversion — but the lead time has ranged from several months to about two years, and the curve has often steepened again just before or during downturns as the Fed began cutting. The long inversion that began in 2022 is a reminder that the signal is not a precise timer.
Why it matters
Economists debate why inversions have been such good predictors. One view holds that they capture tight monetary policy that eventually slows the economy; another, that they reflect investors' collective forecast of weaker growth. Either way, a single indicator is best read alongside others, such as jobless claims and credit spreads.
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.