Morning BriefNo. 8
10-year yield climbs to 5.00%, highest since July 2007; oil surges 4.4%
In Tuesday's session, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8%, the Dow fell 0.6%, and gold settled at $4,332.80 an ounce.
This archive edition was compiled from official historical data on September 23, 2026, when Diurna began publishing.
- S&P 5007,585.73▼ −0.45%
- Nasdaq25,981.57▼ −0.78%
- Dow52,093.11▼ −0.63%
- 10-yr yield5.00%▲ +3 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1539▼ −0.10%
- Gold$4,332.80▼ −0.44%
- WTI crude$105.83▲ +4.38%
- Bitcoin$75,656▼ −3.25%
Stocks
The benchmark S&P 500 lost ground 0.45% to 7,585.73. The Nasdaq Composite declined 0.78%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63% to 52,093.11.
The S&P 500 has gained 10.8% so far in 2026 and stands 2.7% below its record close of 7,798.99, set on August 13, 2026. It also crossed below its 50-day moving average, now at 7,611.04. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, edged up to 17.20, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to 5.00%, its highest level since July 2007. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, ticked up 2 basis points to 4.67%.
That left the 10-year yield 33 basis points above the 2-year. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.62% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.38%, as of Tuesday. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.76% (September 10).
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro dipped 0.10% to $1.1539 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar climbed 0.29% against the yen to ¥155.00 and the British pound slipped to $1.3483. Overall, the dollar strengthened against nine of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Mexican peso, which fell 0.49% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
West Texas Intermediate crude soared 4.4% to $105.83 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, advanced 2.9% to $108.75 a barrel.
Gold dipped 0.4% to $4,332.80 an ounce, and silver eased 0.4% to $63.24 an ounce.
Bitcoin dropped 3.3% to $75,656.
On the calendar
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, along with officials' updated economic projections.
Coming up
- Tue Sep 2910 a.m.Job openings (JOLTS)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.GDP (third estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
10-year breakeven inflation rate climbed to 2.38% in September 15 from 2.37% in the prior session. That is about the same as 2.39% a year earlier. Over the past 10 years it has ranged from 0.50% (March 2020) to 3.02% (April 2022).
What it measures. The difference between the 10-year nominal Treasury yield and the 10-year TIPS yield.
Why it matters. It is a market-based estimate of average inflation over the next decade. Investors watch it to judge whether inflation expectations remain anchored near the Federal Reserve's 2% goal.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,585.73 | −34.25 | −0.45% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,981.57 | −204.84 | −0.78% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,093.11 | −328.09 | −0.63% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,870.29 | −21.95 | −0.76% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 17.20 | +0.10 | +0.58% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.11% | 0 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.67% | +2 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.83% | +3 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.00% | +3 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.36% | +2 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1539 | −0.0012 | −0.10% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥155.00 | +0.45 | +0.29% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3483 | −0.0011 | −0.08% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.7115 | +0.0031 | +0.05% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.3920 | +0.0033 | +0.24% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8182 | +0.0017 | +0.21% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7126 | −0.0004 | −0.06% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 17.1568 | +0.0847 | +0.50% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $105.83 | +4.44 | +4.38% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $108.75 | +3.07 | +2.90% | ||
| Natural gas | $2.919 | +0.023 | +0.79% | ||
| Gold | $4,332.80 | −19.10 | −0.44% | ||
| Silver | $63.24 | −0.28 | −0.44% | ||
| Copper | $6.369 | +0.039 | +0.61% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $75,656 | −2,544 | −3.25% | ||
Closing levels for September 15, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.